Quantum Computing Stocks: Are We Watching the Dot-Com Bubble 2.0?
Remember when everyone thought pets.com was going to revolutionise how we buy dog food? Or when adding “.com” to your company name instantly tripled your valuation? Yeah, that didn’t end well for most investors.
Now we’re watching something eerily similar unfold with quantum computing stocks. Companies like D-Wave, IonQ, and Rigetti are trading at valuations that make even the craziest dot-com era prices look reasonable. Furthermore, the warning signs are flashing so brightly that ignoring them requires genuine effort.
Let’s break down why quantum computing stocks might be headed for a spectacular crash—and what history tells us about investing in revolutionary technologies before they’re actually, you know, revolutionary.
The Valuation Insanity Nobody’s Talking About
Here’s a number that should make you uncomfortable: D-Wave Quantum currently trades at 342 times sales. Not earnings. Sales. The company isn’t profitable, so there’s no P/E ratio to even calculate.
To put that in perspective, during the height of the dot-com bubble, Microsoft peaked at 31 times sales. Amazon hit 51. Even eBay, which soared to absurd heights, topped out at 144 times sales. Consequently, D-Wave’s current valuation makes eBay at its bubble peak look like a value investment.
The Math Doesn’t Add Up
Let’s talk real numbers for a second. These quantum computing companies aren’t just unprofitable—they’re burning cash at an alarming rate. Moreover, they have minimal revenue and no clear path to profitability in the near term.
IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave all share similar characteristics:
- Virtually no meaningful revenue
- Massive ongoing cash burn
- Valuations based on potential, not performance
- Stock prices are driven by hype rather than fundamentals
Historically, this combination has ended badly. In fact, it’s ended badly every single time it’s appeared in markets over the past few decades.
History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Sure Does Rhyme
Every major technological advancement seems to follow the same pattern. Initially, excitement builds around the potential. Then, investor money floods in before the technology is ready for prime time. Subsequently, reality sets in, and valuations collapse.
We’ve seen this movie before, and we know how it ends.
The Technology Bubble Hall of Fame
Since the internet’s proliferation, every major tech advancement has navigated through a bubble. Consider these examples:
Genome Decoding – Companies promised personalised medicine would be here in just a few years. Valuations soared. Reality took decades longer than predicted. Most early investors got crushed.
Nanotechnology – Remember when nanotech was going to revolutionise everything from medicine to manufacturing? The technology is real and useful, but the timeline was wildly optimistic. Consequently, early investors paid the price.
3D Printing – This was supposed to put every manufacturer out of business. Instead, it found niche applications while stock prices collapsed from their peaks.
Blockchain Technology – Beyond cryptocurrency speculation, blockchain was going to transform everything from supply chains to voting systems. Most blockchain-focused companies either failed or pivoted to something else entirely.
The Metaverse – Facebook literally changed its name to Meta, betting the company on this vision. Subsequently, they’ve burned tens of billions of dollars with little to show for it.
Notice the pattern? Revolutionary technology takes decades to mature, but investors expect results in quarters. Therefore, bubbles form and then burst with brutal efficiency.
Why Quantum Computing Is Different (But Not in a Good Way)
“But quantum computing is real!” you might be thinking. “It’s going to change everything!”
You’re right. Quantum computing will change significant aspects of computing, cryptography, and scientific research. However, that doesn’t mean current quantum computing stocks are good investments. In fact, history suggests the opposite.
The Commercialisation Timeline Nobody Wants to Discuss
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: quantum computers remain primarily an exploratory technology, lacking critical commercial scale or enterprise adoption. Moreover, it’ll likely be many years before quantum computers are more cost-efficient than classical computers for practical problem-solving.
“Five years away from a breakthrough” has been the refrain in quantum computing for decades. Interestingly, we’re still hearing the same timeline today. Eventually, that breakthrough will come. Nevertheless, betting on the exact timing of your investment dollars is incredibly risky.
The Insider Selling Red Flag
Want to know what company insiders think about these valuations? They’re selling. Aggressively.
D-Wave’s CEO, CFO, and board members have been dumping shares. Similarly, Rigetti’s CEO has been selling. These aren’t small, routine sales either—they’re significant liquidations.
Think about that for a moment. The people who know these companies best, who have the most information about their prospects, are cashing out at current prices. Meanwhile, retail investors are buying in, convinced they’ve found the next Amazon or Microsoft.
Insider selling isn’t always a bearish signal. However, when combined with extreme valuations and minimal revenue, it’s a massive red flag that’s hard to ignore.
The Dot-Com Parallels Are Impossible to Miss
Let’s walk through the similarities between today’s quantum computing stocks and yesterday’s dot-com disasters:
Similar Pattern #1: Name Recognition = Premium Valuation
During the dot-com era, simply adding “.com” to your company name could send your stock soaring. The underlying business didn’t need to change—just the branding. Likewise, today we’re seeing “quantum” work its magic on stock prices.
Traditional tech companies rebranding or announcing quantum initiatives see immediate stock price bumps. Pure-play quantum companies, despite having almost nothing to show for their efforts, command premium valuations simply because they’re in the quantum space.
Similar Pattern #2: Metrics That Don’t Matter
Dot-com companies were valued on clicks, page views, and user growth. Profitability? Revenue? Those were considered old-fashioned metrics that didn’t apply to the new economy. Instead, investors focused on “eyeballs” and “mindshare.”
Today’s quantum computing stocks are valued on… well, it’s not entirely clear. Certainly not on earnings or cash flow. Perhaps on the theoretical power of their quantum systems or the number of qubits they’ve achieved. Nevertheless, these metrics don’t translate to actual business value—at least not yet.
Similar Pattern #3: The Greater Fool Theory in Action
Many dot-com investors knew the valuations were insane. However, they also believed they could sell to a greater fool before the music stopped. Musical chairs worked until it didn’t.
Currently, quantum computing stocks are exhibiting similar dynamics. Traders know the fundamentals don’t support current prices, but momentum is strong, and someone else will presumably buy at even higher prices. Until they won’t.
When Will the Bubble Pop?
Nobody has a crystal ball. Nevertheless, several factors suggest a correction could happen sooner rather than later.
Factor #1: Market Conditions Are Shifting
Broader market volatility is already impacting quantum stocks. When the S&P 500 drops 2%, quantum computing stocks can fall 10% or more. This heightened sensitivity to market conditions indicates fragility.
Moreover, when interest rates are low and money is cheap, investors tolerate unprofitable growth companies. However, in a higher-rate environment, fundamentals matter more. Consequently, speculative stocks with no earnings face increased pressure.
Factor #2: The Insider Exodus
As mentioned earlier, insiders are selling. This pattern typically accelerates before major corrections. These executives understand that current trajectories are unsustainable and are capitalising on momentum while it lasts.
Furthermore, when the people running these companies don’t believe in holding the stock at current prices, why should you?
Factor #3: Reality Will Eventually Intrude
Eventually, investors will demand to see actual revenue growth, customer adoption, and paths to profitability. The “trust us, quantum computing is five years away from changing everything” story only works for so long.
Once patience runs out—and it always does—the revaluation will be swift and brutal. Predictions suggest this could happen as early as 2026, though timing market corrections is notoriously difficult.
The Low Barrier to Entry Problem
Here’s something that doesn’t get discussed enough: the barrier to entry in quantum computing is lower than most people think.
Currently, companies like IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave are riding their first-mover advantage. However, this advantage is fragile. Big tech companies—Microsoft, Google, IBM, Amazon—are all investing heavily in quantum computing. These giants have:
- Vastly more capital to invest in research
- Established customer bases to sell quantum services to
- Diversified revenue streams to fund quantum development
- Better talent pools and research capabilities
What happens when these behemoths decide to seriously compete in quantum computing? The pure-play companies with limited resources and no foundational operating segments become vulnerable. Consequently, their current valuations look even more precarious.
The Cisco Comparison That Should Terrify You
During the dot-com bubble, Cisco was the infrastructure backbone of the internet. Everyone needed Cisco equipment to build out the internet infrastructure, and the stock soared accordingly.
Then the bubble burst. Companies that had been building internet infrastructure suddenly slashed their capital expenditures. Cisco’s market cap fell 89% from its peak. Not 89% below today’s price—89% below where it topped out.
D-Wave and similar quantum computing stocks could face an even harsher reversal. Why? Because Cisco actually had real revenue, real profits, and real customers. Meanwhile, quantum computing companies have mostly promises and potential.
When the correction comes, the lack of fundamental business metrics will provide no floor for stock prices. Valuations could collapse 90% or more without hitting any obvious support levels.
But What About the Long-Term Potential?
“Okay,” you might be thinking, “but quantum computing really is going to be important eventually. Shouldn’t I get in now?”
Let’s address this directly: betting on the long-term potential of quantum computing and betting on current quantum computing stocks are two completely different things.
The Technology Can Win While the Stocks Lose
Amazon survived the dot-com crash and eventually became one of the world’s most valuable companies. However, that doesn’t mean buying Amazon stock at its bubble peak was a good decision. Furthermore, for every Amazon that survived, dozens of other internet companies went bankrupt.
Similarly, quantum computing as a technology will likely prove transformative over the coming decades. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean today’s quantum computing stocks will be the ultimate winners. In fact, many—possibly most—will likely fail or be acquired at prices far below current levels.
The Timing Problem
Even if you correctly identify a revolutionary technology and correctly pick the eventual winner, timing still matters enormously. Buying too early means your capital is tied up for years or decades while you wait for the company to grow into its valuation.
Additionally, you might face 80-90% drawdowns along the way. Most investors can’t psychologically handle watching their investment collapse even if the long-term thesis remains intact. Therefore, they sell at the bottom and never experience the eventual recovery.
What Should Investors Actually Do?
If you’re considering quantum computing stocks, here’s some brutally honest advice:
Strategy #1: Wait for the Crash
Predictions suggest quantum computing stocks could crater in 2026. Rather than trying to ride momentum, consider waiting for valuations to reset to more reasonable levels. You might miss some upside, but you’ll also avoid becoming what traders call a “bag holder”—someone stuck holding worthless shares after the crash.
Strategy #2: Bet on Big Tech Instead
Want exposure to quantum computing’s potential without the risk of pure-play companies going bankrupt? Invest in Microsoft, Google, IBM, or Amazon. These companies are investing in quantum research while also generating massive profits from existing businesses. Consequently, you get quantum upside without quantum-specific risk.
Strategy #3: Accept That You’re Speculating
If you absolutely must buy quantum computing stocks despite all the warning signs, at least be honest with yourself. You’re not investing—you’re speculating. Therefore, only allocate money you can afford to lose entirely.
Set strict stop-losses. Take profits if you get lucky. Don’t add to positions on the way down. Treat it like the casino trip it actually is.
Strategy #4: Study the Fundamentals (What Little Exists)
If a quantum computing company actually demonstrates:
- Consistent revenue growth
- Actual paying customers
- A realistic path to profitability
- Insider buying (not selling)
- Valuations below 50 times sales
Then it might warrant serious consideration. However, currently, none of the pure-play quantum stocks check these boxes.
The Uncomfortable Truth About Revolutionary Technology
Here’s what history teaches us: revolutionary technologies eventually change the world, but they rarely make early investors rich.
The automobile revolutionised transportation, but thousands of early car companies went bankrupt. The internet transformed communication and commerce, but most dot-com companies failed. Smartphones changed how we live, but Nokia and BlackBerry didn’t benefit.
Revolutionary technology creates winners and losers. Moreover, identifying which companies will ultimately succeed is incredibly difficult—even harder than identifying which technologies will prove important.
Quantum computing will almost certainly be important. However, that importance doesn’t automatically translate to profits for companies like D-Wave, IonQ, or Rigetti. In fact, given current valuations, these stocks would need to achieve nearly impossible outcomes just to justify today’s prices.
The Bottom Line: Bubble or Opportunity?
Let’s call it what it is: quantum computing stocks are in a bubble. The valuations are disconnected from reality, insider selling is rampant, fundamentals are nonexistent, and the parallels to previous technology bubbles are unmistakable.
Does this mean quantum computing as a technology isn’t promising? No. Does it mean you should avoid quantum computing stocks at current prices? Probably yes.
Bubbles are exciting to watch but painful to experience as an investor. Furthermore, the companies that survive often take years or decades to grow into their peak valuations. Meanwhile, most companies simply fail.
Every quantum computing stock faces a substantial risk of becoming a falling knife. Catching falling knives looks impressive until you realise you’re just getting cut.
Wait for the crash. Let valuations reset. Then, if quantum computing companies demonstrate actual business progress rather than just technological promise, reassess. Your capital will still be there, and the opportunities might actually make sense.
The revolution might be real, but that doesn’t mean you should pay revolutionary prices for companies that aren’t generating revolutionary results.
Spend some time for your future.
To deepen your understanding of today’s evolving financial landscape, we recommend exploring the following articles:
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Explore these articles to get a grasp on the new changes in the financial world.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Stock investing involves substantial risk of loss. The quantum computing industry is highly speculative and volatile. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.
References
- Yahoo Finance. (2026). “Prediction: The Quantum Computing Bubble Will Burst in 2026.” Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-quantum-computing-bubble-burst-120500243.html
- Yahoo Finance. (2026). “D-Wave Quantum Stock Will Be Worth This Much by Year-End 2026.” Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prediction-d-wave-quantum-stock-060500404.html
- Nasdaq. (n.d.). “Beyond the Hype: 5 Reasons Quantum Computing Stocks IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum Can Crash in 2026.” Retrieved from https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/beyond-hype-5-reasons-quantum-computing-stocks-ionq-rigetti-computing-and-d-wave-quantum
- Nanalyze. (2026). “Every Quantum Computing Stock Will Crash. Here’s Why!” [Video]. YouTube. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGvLjUN1XFY
- Intellectia.AI. (n.d.). “D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Stock Falls 6.2% Amid Market Volatility.” Retrieved from https://intellectia.ai/news/stock/dwave-quantum-qbts-stock-falls-62-amid-market-volatility
